What I wrote at Lib Dem Voice

October 26, 2006

All you need to know about the science of opinion polling

  • According to Mori in the Financial Times (22nd Oct), the Tories trail Labour by 2% - 35% to 37%.
  • According to Communicate Research in The Independent (24th Oct), the Tories lead Labour by 6% - 38% to 32% - with the Lib Dems plummeting to 14%.
  • According to ICM in thegrauniad (25th Oct), the Tories lead Labour by 10% - 39% to 29% - with the Lib Dems increasing to 22%.
From this we can conclude, within the +/-3% margins of error, that:
  • The Tories are either more popular than Labour or less popular than Labour, scoring somewhere between 32% and 42%.
  • Labour are either more popular than the Tories or less popular than the Tories, scoring somewhere between 26% and 40%.
  • The Lib Dems are either losing support or gaining support, scoring somewhere between 11% and 25%.
So that’s all clear then.

Question: why do reputable news media outlets and The Independent devote so much space to discussing individual polls which, when viewed in isolation, are about as reliable as a Tony Blair answer at Prime Minister’s Questions?


AverageEarthman said...

I suspect it is because the media have space to fill, and reporting on opinion polls is a cheap and easy way to do it for a journalist as everything you need to write the story is delivered to your desk.

Anonymous said...

The Lib Dems are either losing support

Anonymous said...

A great blog well done to you?

Any comment on the Lib Dem councillors awaiting sentnce for vote fraud in Burnley?

Should they go to jail?