What I wrote at Lib Dem Voice

April 22, 2007

Alright with being awry

This was my prediction on PoliticalBetting.com of the results of the first round of the French presidential election:

Nicolas Sarkozy 28.9%
Ségolène Royal 22.8%
Jean-Marie Le Pen 16.5%
François Bayrou 15.3%

This compares with the latest set of figures at LeTemps.ch:

Nicolas Sarkozy 30.0% (+1.1%)
Ségolène Royal 25.2% (+2.4%)
François Bayrou 18.3% (+3.0%)
Jean-Marie Le Pen 11.5% (-5.0%)

So, within the +/-3% accepted margin of error for all but Le Pen, whose vote I wildly overstated. Sometimes it’s good to be wrong.

1 comment:


Can't say I disagree with you that it's sometimes good to be wrong.

Here's a 'brainer' for you:

Sarkozy is sure to win but only by a slim margin - how slim do you reckon will that margin be?