French presidential election poll: hearts say Bayrou, heads say Sarkozy

That, at least, seems to be the message so far of the polls running here.

Here’s how you, dear readers, have so far said you’d vote if you had a say in today’s French presidential election first round:










And here’s what you reckon will actually happen:










Only a few hours before we know for sure who’ll be facing each other in a fortnight’s time for the second and deciding round…

New poll: the French presidential election

With just a few days to go before the French presidential election’s first round, time for a couple of new polls, I think.

The first tests your political philosophy: who do you want to win?

Free polls from Pollhost.com

Who would you vote for in the French presidential election?

François Bayrou Ségolène Royal Nicolas Sarkozy

The second tests your political realism: who do you think actually will win?

Free polls from Pollhost.com

Who do you think will win the French presidential election?

François Bayrou Ségolène Royal Nicolas Sarkozy

My answer to both questions? Nicolas Sarkozy, faute de mieux. None of the candidates has inspired.

Ségolène Royal, whose ballsy campaign to win the Socialist nomination has given way to a lightweight campaign entirely lacking in cojones - let alone any coherent policy proposals - deserves to be eliminated. Should France wake up to her first female President on 6th May, the nation can look forward to continuing economic and political torpor.

Ms Royal’s only redeeming feature is her unfashionable support for Turkish inclusion within the European Union. As Chris Patten has noted:

The reconciliation of France and Germany was the necessary and admirable European accomplishment of the twentieth century; reconciling the West and the Islamic world, with Europe acting as a hinge between the two, is a major task for the twenty-first.

Not Quite the Diplomat (2005), p.144

François Bayrou has achieved a quite remarkable political turnaround, from undistinguished former education minister to shock Presidential challenger - even if much of his rise can be ascribed as a crushing indictment of Ms Royal’s lacklustre efforts. Some of his programme appeals - for example, his robust pledge to cut public debt - but his opposition to Turkish EU membership, muddled economic protectionism, and enthusiasm for a revived EU constitution rule him out of contention for me.

Nor am I convinced that his pledge to unite the ‘left’ and ‘right’ of France is a slogan that would stand up to scrutiny for even 24 hours if he found himself a resident of the Palais de l'Élysée. As leader of the UFD party, he controls just 27 of the National Assembly’s 577 seats. Great admirer of Roy Jenkins though I am, if he had proposed in 1983 that, as leader of the the SDP/Liberal Alliance’s 23 MPs, he was in a position to unite Margaret Thatcher’s Tories and Michael Foot’s Labour party many would have regarded him as a tad naïve. I’m all for pragmatism and cross-party working: I think Mr Bayrou’s presidency would result in a soggy melange.

Which leaves me with Mr Sarkozy. He is very far from ideal. He has shown a willingness to court Jean-Marie Le Pen’s supporters, glorying in social authoritarianism, and displaying a nativism bordering on the unpleasant, including an unswerving opposition to Turkey’s EU membership. There are two factors in Mr Sarkozy’s favour, and they’re enough to swing it for me.

First, he accepts and understands the need for France’s economy to liberalise. Though he has, perhaps understandably, soft-peddled during the campaign, his promise of rupture is both bold and correct, signalling an end to the 35-hour week, reductions in personal and corporate taxation, and beginning the essential task of setting France’s universities free of stifling state control.

Secondly, he appears sufficiently resolute to stick to his prescription. I’m not keen on the notion of the ‘smack of firm leadership’, but, after 26 years of drift and fudge, France may just be ready for a politician prepared to lead from the front, rather than the back.

I have, by the way, excluded Mr Le Pen from both polls, and this analysis. Nothing to do with political correctness, everything to do with political probability. If they get through to the second round it’s possible to imagine any one of Mr Bayrou, Ms Royal or Mr Sarkozy triumphing: Mr Le Pen is nothing more than a spoiler candidate for those parts of the French electorate which wish to find scapegoats more than solutions.

Barren of Thurso

Sky News’ political editor Adam Boulton has published his annual Valentine’s list of the top 10 most fanciable MPs.

Congratulations are due to Nick Clegg (No. 3) and Lynne Featherstone (7) for holding the Lib Dems’ end up (so to speak).

But the real scandal, of course, is the omission of John Thurso, the party’s very own love-walrus (© Lib Dem Voice), so recently voted sexiest male by this blog’s readers.

Polls can be so fickle.

Brown sauce

There are two explanations for the news that Gordon Brown has - apparently - been voted the 97th sexiest man by readers of NW (New Woman) magazine.

Either: it’s actually quite hard to name up to 100 famous men who could in any way fit the description.

Or: the magazine’s editors have found an easy way of conning the BBC into running some free advertising, just as they did last year with David Cameron’s first appearance in the poll.

And as regular readers of this blog will know, I take a dim view of any attempt to boost readership through such cheap ploys as polls about sexy politicians.

What's in a name anyway?

As Paul Walters, David Rundle and Iain Dale have all been kind enough to note, I almost get a starring mention on the back page of this week’s Lib Dem News. Almost, but not quite.

For, in reporting the results of that poll, the good folk at LDN have re-christened me John Tall. Fortunately my dad, whose first name is John, doesn’t subscribe to LDN, as I’m not too sure he would care to have his name sullied by association with an article on ‘sexy Lib Dems’. He might not feel it would fit too comfortably with being a man of the cloth.

(And, yes, for the record that does make me a son of a preacher-man. Believe me, I’ve heard all the jokes.)

Had I been born a girl, my parents inform me I would have been called Rachel Elizabeth. Thankfully - and pace Johnny Cash’s advice - they decided not to toughen me up in that way.

What they did do was give my two brothers and me middle names beginning with ‘J’ - I got Joseph, a long-standing family name. Though co-incidentally (and something I only found out this week-end) my birthday, 19th March, is also the Feast Day of St Joseph. Wikipedia describes him - in perhaps the most untheologically PC way imaginable - as the ‘foster-father’ of Jesus.

Apparently St Joseph lived to the ripe old age of 111, a fate I don’t intend to emulate - dying standing on one leg is just way too undignified.

Sexiest female and male Lib Dems - final poll results

Well, the votes have been counted and verified, and the final results of my ever-so-classy ‘Sexiest female and male Lib Dems’ poll can now be revealed.

Your winners are:

















And, for what it's worth, I think they make a lovely couple...

Full results as follows:

Sexiest female Lib Dem (in order of votes cast):

1. Kirsty Williams AM - 20% (53)
2. Jenny Willott MP - 19% (51)
3. Julia Goldsworthy MP - 15% (39)
4. Jo Swinson MP - 13% (36)
5. Honor Blackman - 13% (35)
6. Lynne Featherstone MP - 8% (22)
7. Sarah Teather MP - 6% (17)
8. Baroness Scott of Needham Market - 4% (11)
9. Baroness Falkner of Margravine - 1% (3)

(267 votes total)

Sexiest male Lib Dem (in order of votes cast):

1. John Thurso MP - 29% (57)
2. Jeremy Browne MP - 21% (42)
3. Nick Clegg MP - 19% (37)
4. Ben Abbotts - 8% (16)
5. Lord Ashdown of Norton-sub-Hamdon - 8% (16)
6. Nicol Stephen MSP - 6% (12)
7. Stephen Williams MP - 6% (12)
8. Sir Menzies Campbell MP - 3% (6)
9. Matthew Taylor MP - 1% (2)

(200 votes total)

I’m so glad to have been able to raise the tone of the Lib Dem blogosphere with this poll. You certainly won’t catch me dumbing-down in 2007 - at least any more than I did in 2006.

It's too close to call

I was going to call it a two-horse race until I realised how ungallant such a headline might appear. But it really couldn’t be any closer in the race for sexiest female Lib Dem, as we enter the final furlong.

Not only is it a tie between Kirsty Williams AM and Jenny Willott MP for first place, but just three votes separate the trio of luminaries vying for the bronze medal position. Here are the scores on the doors:

• Kirsty Williams AM = 19%
• Jenny Willott MP = 19%
• Julia Goldsworthy MP = 15%
• Jo Swinson MP = 14%
• Honor Blackman = 13%

There’s little doubt about the winner in the sexiest male Lib Dem poll. The 3rd Viscount Thurso is the runaway winner, with a whopping 29%. At the moment, the much-coveted runners-up are Jeremy Browne MP (21%) and Nick Clegg MP (18%). But it could all change…

I’m keeping the poll open til New Year’s Eve, so there still time to rig things for your favourite if that’s your thing.

Some people will do anything

Nice try, Lembit. But I'm still not going to include you in my poll.

Typical. Just typical

Henry Mencken (nearly) once said, "No one ever went broke underestimating the taste of the Lib Dem blog-reading public." How right he was would have been.

“Proof, if proof be need be,” (as The Day Today immortalised) is in this blog’s hit-counter, which suggests my post on sexiest Lib Dem male/female will soon be more popular than John Prescott’s departmental website.

It’s lovely of so many of you to visit; even more so if you’d care to go the extra mile, and actually cast your vote...

NEW POLL: sexiest female and male Lib Dems

Y’see it’s like this… Originally, I was going to upload a festive poll asking, ‘Who has been your politician of the year?’ But then I thought some more, and decided that was just too drearily worthy.

So I tried to think of something Lib Dem-themed, and not tedious. (Tory/Labour-readers: insert your own punch-line here.) This is what I came up with…

Two polls to find out who you think is the sexiest female Lib Dem, and who is the sexiest male Lib Dem. (See the right-hand menu.)

My short-list selection criteria were pretty arbitrary and utterly surface. Those whom I have ungraciously overlooked this year have 12 months in which to make themselves appear more attractive. These two might help.

Vote early, vote once, vote honest. (Sorry it’s not being run under STV.) And, please remember, it’s just a bit of fun…

(Click on the name to see a picture if - shame on you - you’ve no idea what they look like.)

Who do you think is the sexiest female Lib Dem?

• Honor Blackman - former Bond girl (the one and only Pussy Galore), and keen party activist.
• Baroness Falkner of Margravine - Lib Dem peer, who speaks for the party on home affairs.
• Lynne Featherstone MP - the party’s blogging queen, and Nick Clegg’s No 2.
• Julia Goldsworthy MP - proved her fitness both on C4’s The Games, and as Vince Cable’s deputy.
• Baroness Scott of Needham Market - Lib Dem peer, and former leader of Suffolk County Council.
• Jo Swinson MP - the youngest MP in the House of Commons, and Shadow Scottish Secretary.
• Sarah Teather MP - formerly the youngest MP in the House of Commons; still the joint shortest.
• Kirsty Williams AM - Welsh Assembly member, and former deputy president of the Welsh Lib Dems.)
• Jenny Willott MP - first female MP for Cardiff, and youth affairs spokeswoman.

Who do you think is the sexiest male Lib Dem?

• Ben Abbotts - near-victor in the former safe Tory seat of Bromley. He may never live this photo down, though.
• Lord Ashdown of Norton-sub-Hamdon - former party leader, former marine - still an action man.
• Jeremy Browne MP - the victor of Taunton, and No 2 in the foreign affairs team.
• Sir Menzies Campbell MP - party leader and pin-striped radical... but is he a pin-up?
• Nick Clegg MP - shadow Home Secretary, “next leader”, and housewives’ favourite.
• Nicol Stephen MSP - deputy First Minister of Scotland; formerly the youngest councillor in Scotland.
• Matthew Taylor MP - former Shdow Chancellor, he remained the youngest MP for a decade, between 1987 and 1997.
• John Thurso MP - first hereditary peer to sit in the Commons without first renouncing his title. Champion moustache-wearer.
• Stephen Williams MP - third time lucky in Bristol West, he is now further and higher education spokesman.

PS: if anyone knows how I can get the polls 'aligned right' in the blogger template, please ping me an e-mail.

New poll: What should happen to the House of Lords?

Pop over to my other gaff, and you can register your view on the following question:

The Government has said (again) it will bring forward proposals to reform the House of Lords (again). What do you think should happen with the second chamber? Should it be…?

• Wholly elected
• 80% elected, 20% appointed
• 50% elected, 50% appointed
• 20% elected, 80% appointed
• Wholly appointed

My view... Those who make laws should be accountable to those who have to live by those laws. It is a nonsense that a reformed second chamber should be anything other than wholly elected if it is to have any democratic legitimacy.

There is no reason why this should pose a threat to the primacy of the House of Commons - its powers can be carefully defined, just as local councils’ powers are subject to national government.

That the Labour Party has still not legislated for an elected House of Lords after 10 years of government is an indictment of its decade of wasted opportunity.

If you agree the second chamber should be wholly elected, don't forget to visit Elect The Lords, and sign-up to show your support.

Result of last poll: only 25% of you predicted the Democrats would control both the House of Representatives and Senate (and some of those votes were cast after the results were known, which was slightly cheating). The vast majority wrongly guessed - like me - that the Dems would win the House but fail to take the Senate.

Close, but only half a cigar

It'll be good, but not quite good enough - that appears to be your view on what the Democrats can hope to get out of tomorrow's US mid-terms.

A whopping 80% of those who have so far voted in the poll over at my other gaff reckon the Dems will do enough to win control of the House of Representatives, but fall short of snatching the Senate away from the Republicans.

There is, of course, one other scenario which my poll doesn't allow for - the Senate could be tied at 50 each. Indeed, that is the result predicted by the latest Polimetrix poll as reported on Political Wire, which would be a throwback to the position which pertained (for a few months) in 2001.

The Republicans would still retain control, but only on Veep Cheney's casting vote. (Which might at least keep in check his propensity to go human quail hunting.)

New poll: what’s going to happen in the US mid-terms?

In four days’ time, 7th November, Americans will go the polls to elect 435 members of the House of Representatives, and 33 members (one-third) of the Senate. What will happen? That’s the question I’m asking over at m’other site, and you have four possible options:

• A clean Democrat sweep: gain both House and Senate
• Dems control House, Republicans keep Senate
• Republicans keep House, Dems capture Senate
• A Republican recovery: House and Senate stay with GOP

Can the Democrats capitalise on President Bush’s dismal popularity, and a Republican Party beleaguered by scandals? Or might Karl Rove’s much-vaunted tactical ability, and the GOP’s fearsome GOTV strategy, yet pull a rabbit out of the hat?

Democrats who are simply bursting to get their own back after the tight presidential races of 2000 and 2004 should perhaps be careful what they wish for. As Adam Nagourney noted in the New York Times six months ago:

As strange as it might seem, there are moments when losing is winning in politics. Even as Democrats are doing everything they can to win, and believe that victory is critical for future battles over real issues, some of the party's leading figures are also speculating that November could represent one of those moments.

From this perspective, it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world politically to watch the Republicans struggle through the last two years of the Bush presidency. There's the prospect of continued conflict in Iraq, high gas prices, corruption investigations, Republican infighting and a gridlocked Congress. Democrats would have a better chance of winning the presidency in 2008, by this reasoning, and for the future they enhance their stature at a time when Republicans are faltering.

Indeed, some Democrats worry that the worst-case scenario may be winning control of Congress by a slim margin, giving them responsibility without real authority. They might serve as a foil to Republicans and President Bush, who would be looking for someone to share the blame. Democrats need a net gain of 6 seats in the Senate, and 15 seats in the House.

"The most politically advantageous thing for the Democrats is to pick up 11, 12 seats in the House and 3 or 4 seats in the Senate but let the Republicans continue to be responsible for government," said Tony Coelho, a former House Democratic whip. "We are heading into this period of tremendous deficit, plus all the scandals, plus all the programs that have been cut. This way, they get blamed for everything."

Result of last poll: as you can see, John Reid was by far your favoured Labour leader from a Lib Dem perspective (ie, the guy most likely to be bad for Labour and good for us): he polled 47% to Gordon Brown's 17%; trailing were David Miliband (16%), John Hutton (11%) and Alan Johnson (9%).

Though it looks like it's all fairly academic now.

New poll: who would be the best Labour leader for the Lib Dems?

In less than a year’s time there will be a new leader of the Labour Party, and (for that matter) a new Prime Minister.

There will be plenty of polls asking Labour members, and the general public, who they/we think will prove most effective. This poll isn’t asking that. I want to know who you think would be the best Labour leader from a Liberal Democrat perspective.

Put bluntly, I guess: who we selfishly think would make the worst Labour leader?

Your choices are: Gordon Brown, Alan Johnson, David Miliband, John Hutton, and John Reid. (I’ve ignored John McDonnell for what I think are obvious reasons.)

You should, of course, feel free to vote tactically in order to try and convince Labour members not to elect someone you think would actually be a good leader.

Result of last poll:

Chris Huhne was your choice (just) as the Lib Dem MP who impressed most at last week’s party conference. His 40% squeaked past Nick Clegg’s 36%. Ming Campbell followed on 15%, followed by Vince Cable (5%), Julia Goldsworthy (4%) and Evan Harris (1%).

Make up your minds

Clearly posting that 'Cleggy's off to a flier' on Sunday inspired a few Huhne-iacs to get in on the act - as a result Nick and Chris have swapped places in the poll to decide who you think emerged from the Lib Dem conference with most credit.

Indeed, I think it's fair now to say that it's a two-horse race - and one which may just be a foretaste of the leadership battle to come in a few years' time.

This poll is going to be open for just a few more hours, before I open up a new one - which will be along the lines of who you think would be the best Labour leader from a Lib Dem perspective.

That's your mum, that is

I'm one of the 100,000 or so who are signed-up to YouGov, the internet pollster. I've not often been stumped by a question, but I have to confess this one took me aback:













Of course I chose Fern Britton... Who wouldn't?

Though I could swear I heard Gordon Brown refer today to Cherie Blair as a total "mother-figure". But maybe I mis-heard.

Cleggy's off to a flier

Nick Clegg is off to a flying start in my new poll asking which Lib Dem MP had the best party conference.

Over 40% of you have so far chosen the Sheffield Hallam sex-bomb Home Affairs spokesman as your star turn, followed by Chris Huhne (25%) and Ming Campbell (22%) who are currently vying for the runners-up spot.

But there is still, of course, all to play for - which may come as some consolation to Julia Goldsworthy, who is currently languishing in last place with nul points.

If you’ve not yet voted - and especially if you're from Cornwall - it’s not too late…

New poll: who had the best conference?

Right, now we’ve all had 24 hours to catch up on lost sleep, and gain some perspective, it’s time to choose which Lib Dem MP you think emerged with most credit from this year’s party conference.

The new poll is open now at my other gaff, and the six runners and riders are (in alphabetical order):

Vince Cable - steered through the Lib Dems’ new tax plans, and delivered an economics masterclass in his speech.

Ming Campbell - led from the front on the tax debate, gave a solid conference speech, and emerged much the stronger.

Nick Clegg - wowed delegates with an absolutely barnstorming speech, and a terrific new gimmick policy proposal: the Great Repeal Act.

Julia Goldsworthy - her cool, calm and assured performance in the lead-up to the tax debate proved her determination and mettle.

Evan Harris - though he lost the vote, his speech (well, mainly his jokes) in favour of the rebel amendment was the talk of the town.

Chris Huhne - his sober and weighty concluding remarks helped swing the tax vote in the leadership’s favour, entrenching his position as the activists’ darling.

** The presidential poll is now closed. Here’s the final score, after 180 votes: **

Paddy Ashdown (42 votes) - 23%
Lynne Featherstone (34) - 19%
Jo Swinson (21) - 12%
Simon Hughes (19) - 11%
Lembit Öpik (14 ) - 8%
Jenny Willott (14 ) - 8%
Susan Kramer (13) - 7%
Matthew Taylor (12) - 7%
Shirley Williams (11) - 6%

(Incidentally, I saw Simon very briefly on Thursday lunch-time, and he congratulated me on my blogging prize. He added that he was delighted to have been able to contribute, by providing the inspiration for the poll on his presidency. For once, I was tongue-tied, with a mixture of embarrassment (that he might have taken it personally) and surprise (that he’d heard about it at all).)